Location: L3, downstairs in the Mathematical Institute
13:30: Karolina Bassa (Oxford Imperial Student)
Title: Credit risk for fossil fuel producers under shifting oil demand
Sovereigns that rely heavily on oil production are exposed to credit risk arising from shifts in global oil demand and prices. To quantify this long-horizon risk, we develop a global oil production model based on asset-level data. In the model, firms make investment decisions across a heterogeneous portfolio of oil assets in an evolving price environment. The asset-level cash flows are allocated between operators and host governments. The resulting government revenue paths are then incorporated into a novel credit risk framework, which jointly models debt dynamics, borrowing costs, and credit ratings. Initial results under business-as-usual and green-transition scenarios illustrate the magnitude and timing of the associated fiscal stress.
14:10: Wen Zhang (Imperial CDT Student)
Title: One-arm probability for the metric graph Gaussian free field
This talk will review some recent results concerning a strongly correlated percolation model called the metric graph Gaussian free field. In particular, we will focus on the probability that the boundary of a large box is connected to the origin at criticality. We will demonstrate how one can derive this probability by working with the underlying random walk. Based on joint work with Pierre-Francois Rodriguez.
14:50: Break
15:00: Prof. Ivan Corwin (Columbia University)
Title: Extreme Diffusion
Two hundred years ago, Robert Brown observed the statistics of the motion of grains of pollen in water. It took almost one hundred years for Einstein and others to develop an effective theory describing this motion as that of a random walker. In this talk, I will challenge a key implication of this well established theory. When studying systems with very large numbers of particles diffusing together, I will argue that the Einstein random walk theory breaks down when it comes to predicting the statistical behavior of extreme particles—those that move the fastest and furthest in the system. In its place, I will describe a new theory of extreme diffusion which captures the effect of the hidden environment in which particles diffuse together and allows us to interrogate that environment by studying extreme particles. I will highlight one piece of mathematics that led us to develop this theory—a non-commutative binomial theorem—and hint at other connections to integrable probability, quantum integrable systems and stochastic PDEs.
16:00 break
16:15 Professor Philipp Bond FREng FAcadMathSci
Title: Entrepreneurship for Mathematicians
Prof. Bond served on the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology under five successive Prime Ministers, and chaired “The Era of Mathematics – An Independent Review of Knowledge Exchange in the Mathematical Sciences”, which recommended substantial increases in funding and new infrastructure to support the mathematical sciences and expand their range of impacts. He will be talking about three intertwined themes: Entrepreneurship - innovation - excellence... or how and why to start up your own company.
He will be joined by Antoine Loth, Head of European Operations for a US based venture capital group, to give insights into the world of venture capital.
